Mercury News Interviews Robert Scoble | 08/06/2006 | Ex-Microsoft blogger starts on a new media adventure: Q How do you sort the hype from reality in this current wave of Internet companies?

A I look for doubling effects. I look for things that continue to see doubling in size. The instant messenger ICQ launched in 1996. By the time I signed up, six weeks later, they had 65,000 downloads. Back then the word-of-mouth network wasn’t so efficient.

My skepticism right now is about how many Web 2.0 Web sites have audiences. The one site people outside the geek world talk to me about is Zillow (which gives real estate price estimates). It’s easy to get doubling effects inside a passion chamber — all the people who care about something will check it out. It’s hard to have it double forever. The trick is to know if it has a chance to jump from the passionate few to the unpassionate many.

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  1. Billy says:

    You know this is a really level headed comment ot make for someone jumping around in the newest dot com boom. I have read Scoble a lot in the past and have always thought of him as insulating himself within web 2.0.

    Many people do know that most of the hype around web 2.0 is just that, hype! but there are going to be a few comanies that are the newest Amazon’s, Google’s and Ebay’s that are going to spring up and take advantage of technology but, dumbed down in a way that lets everyone use the technolgical advantages.

    Thanks again Thomas