My Thoughts on the TiVo Conference Call Today
TiVo Third Quarter Subscription Growth Doubles; Expects Continued Growth Momentum This Holiday Season TiVo was out with their earnings after the close today. Analysts had expected TiVo to lose about 44 cents a share for the quarter ending October 31st and they only lost 33 cents a share. A year ago they were losing 11 cents a share.
In the earnings conference call after the announcement TiVo CEO Mike Ramsey was asked to discuss TiVo's prioritization and timeline on a number initiatives. When asked to prioritize their upcoming initiatives Ramsey responded in the following order.
1. TiVo seems to be placing a great hope in the future of the TiVo/DVD recorder combo. Personally I think that this hope is misplaced. Although it's a nice feature, ultimately with a 4.7 gig maximum storage space on a DVD you're limited. I don't think people really care about this and I think the longer-term sales numbers will be disappointing. Of course TiVo had to mention this as it is important to a number of their hardware partners.
2. A more interesting area is the whole concept of TiVo to Go. TiVo to Go will allow users to get content off of their TiVo boxes (although I'd imagine not off of the HDTV DirecTV unit) and transfer the file to a PC or a laptop for remote viewing. The exciting thing that came out of the conference call was that CEO Mike Ramsey said to expect this before the end of this year. Yikes! That' s coming up quick. I'm looking forward to seeing this roll out.
3. My personal favorite - the standalone HDTV TiVo DVR. In Ramsey's words, they have seen "huge" demand for the DirecTV HDTV unit currently on market. This demand is causing TiVo to reconsider coming to market with a standalone HDTV DVR. Not exactly an announcement but it's nice to know that they are thinking about this.
4. Broadband content delivery. Ramsey said that the NetFlix deal is real and not just a general agreement or hype. He said to expect a rollout of this deal within the next 12 months and sees this as the starting point of a longer initiative of delivering content via broadband. TiVo envisions a living room that has content inputs from both broadband and broadcasts and wants to own the machine in the living room (as does Microsoft of course).
5. Although not as pressing of a priority right now, the last priority mentioned was continued development of the CableCARD.
Some other observations that came out of the call. TiVo has doubled their retail distribution in the last year primarily by introducing their products in Target and Costco, which provide huge distribution.
80% of TiVo owners have a broadband connection in the house. Although TiVo is not presently using this connection it can be activated with a simple software update by TiVo at any time. There are currently 2 million TiVo boxes out there that have broadband capability.
TiVo does receive ad revenue from their stand alone units as well as a share of ad revenue from the DirecTV units (although it does not appear meaningful at present).
As would be expected, this upcoming Holiday Season will be their top quarter and they have high hopes. They expect to add 575,000 to 700,000 subscribers in this upcoming quarter. 375,000 to 425,000 from DirecTV and another 200,000 to 275,000 from standalone TiVos.
Nobody asked any really hard questions or pressed TiVo much on the banner ads in the fast forward button. But then again it's really only selected analysts that get approved to ask the questions on these calls and they were pitched some fairly easy balls by their analyst friends today.
Davenetics take.
posted by Thomas Hawk at 3:41 PM
4 Comments:
TiVo is betting on the wrong horse. DVD recorder combos have nowhere near the real-world appeal of, say a cable card stand-alone (how many cable subscribers in the US right now compared to satellite, like 10 to one??) or a HD stand-alone.
They are simply hyping what they already have to market rather than looking to where the demand is actually going to be.
Actually, DVD Recorders are one of the hottest segments of the consumer electronics market and all forecasts are for dramatic increases over the next several years. VCR sales are *dead* - did you see the announcement today that Dixons, one of the largest electronics retailers in the UK, is pulling VCRs off their shelves for good? In the US Wal-Mart has dropped VCR stock to a couple of units, moving to ditch them. DVD player sales are actually on the decline now, having peaked over a year back. What are people buying? DVD Recorders. The pricing has come down far enough that people are replacing their VCRs. You can't think like a geek and presume everyone will be buring DVDs on a PC - the bulk of the population wants something as simple a a VCR.
Right now DVR/DVD Recorder combos are *hot*, and the market is growing like crazy. That's why TiVo is excited about it. If they can keep pushing the retail price of the units down they should be able to ride that wave to a good share of the market.
While CableCARD is nice, and I've love it, right now the market is nascent. It is too small to measure, and there are still kinks being worked out. It is unlikely that the CableCARD market will be substantial until well into 2005, so TiVo should be in a good position if they bring something to market next year.
Not that the drive used in the newer DVD-RW TiVos is a Pioneer DVD-108, which supports dual layer DVD+R writing, for 8.5GB. Pioneer also says it will be flashable for dual layer DVD-R writing, when that is finalized. Now, the TiVo software doesn't support dual layer at this time - or the 16x speeds the drive can support - but it leaves the door open to software upgrades. The drives *can* be flashed by a software upgrade too. So if dual layer burning gets popular, and blanks become affordable, the window is there to be opened.
-MZ
I really think that TiVoToGo is going to be a big hit for TiVo. I know that I can't wait for it and many of the people that visit my site are in the same boat. TiVoToGo seems like a really attractive feature for anybody on the go. Now you'll be able to watch your favorite shows while in the airport or on a plane :).
Alex
http://www.tivoblog.com
心中一阵不安升降机，因为我忽然又想起了那道剑光升降平台，可怕的剑光升降台，美丽的剑光登车桥。为什么那一剑是那么的美丽货架，却又那么的可怕呢集装袋？在我倒下之前我说地磅，好美的剑塑料托盘，好恨的剑塑料托盘。我倒下了仓储笼。在我失去知觉之前仓储笼，我听到他说北京货架，这叫艺术超市货架，剑的艺术北京货架。
我并没有死广州货架，原来我的心是在右边仓储货架，而是不是左边货架厂。所以在那穿胸一剑之下我并没有死南京货架。
是一阵暴雨把我冲醒了货架公司。听说雨是上天的眼泪深圳货架，也许这天又有人死在那美丽的剑光之下吧服装货架！我张开嘴巴托盘，任雨水打进我的嘴托盘，直冲我的胃塑料托盘。我的伤口又开始流血塑料托盘，但已经不痛了木托盘。试问：仓储笼一个心已经死了的人仓储笼，肉体上的疼痛又算得了什么呢仓储笼？我知道我的刀再练一百年也无法那么美丽仓储笼，那么恨托盘，而且永远别想杀了他托盘。
我退出江湖了手推车，我没有通知江湖上的朋友们静音手推车，并来一个什么金盆洗手静音手推车，因为我的朋友们差不多都被他杀了置物架。我悄悄的走了置物架，隐进了山林之中堆垛架。俨然一个世外高人的样子堆垛架，每天一壶绿茶登高车，放在身边的几上登高车，然后或盯着一朵白云超市手推车，或盯着一片树叶物流手推车，或双目紧闭物流台车。我的刀在玉盆中泡了七七四十九天角钢货架，已经没有血腥味了角钢货架。然后我把它放在我的屋顶轻型货架，任它风吹雨打轻型货架。
十年就这年过去了中型货架。为何今天天忽然想起那柄剑中型货架，那道剑光重型货架？而且内心为什么如此不安重型货架？不应该是这样的仓库货架，对于一个喝了十年绿茶的人来说服装货架，面对死上海货架，也已不再惧怕精品货架，不再不安苏州货架，但今天又为何如此呢托盘货架？
莫非是他青岛货架，和他的剑库房货架，加上他的剑光沈阳货架。我已不问江湖之事天津货架，想他十年前也应该坐上武林盟主的位子了杭州货架，一个武林中人做了武林盟主山东货架，这一生还有什么要求的呢文件柜？
我不停的喝着绿茶工具柜。绿茶静心工具柜。但此时怎么也静不下来零件柜。茶已尽工作台。平时茶尽之时工作台，正也是日落之时工作桌。
一定快有什么事情发生了工作桌。
剑还是那美丽的剑Google左侧排名，如果再加上一道剑光吹塑机，就会形成剑的艺术色带，武学的艺术电源插座。
我问反光背心：为何还来找我滚针轴承，我已在十年之前就退出江湖了夜光粉。
他说文化石：因为你没死缎带，因为我没有对手风火轮。
我说激光打标机：十年前已不是你的对手平衡机，何况现在十年未动刀大功率led。
他说磁力泵：放眼天下梯子，只有你一个人是我的对手网眼袋，也只你一个人对我的威胁无尘布。
我不再说话手摇手电筒，因为我不知道说什么手板，我知道我十年前就开始找我毛巾布，发现我没有死就开始找我磁钢。我不死促销台，他心不安模具钢材。
他说时尚配饰：拿出你的刀筛网。
我说齿轮泵：我已无刀天使花房，命托辊，亦可有可无色丁。
他盯着我广告衫，握剑的手越来越紧钢坯，我知道那道美丽的剑光可能随时发出过滤网。在那美丽过后疏水阀，我的生命将画上句号胸章。
阳光照在了刀上发热管，反射到他的脸上手机耳机。他发现了那把刀螺杆，我的刀插销，宝刀蝴蝶，没有鞘的刀工具包。
刀已在我手中点钞机，刀还是那把刀配电箱，人却已不是那个人流苏，因为心不是那颗心沙滩巾。
他为了杀我竟找了我十年氯化镁，而为了和我比武竟帮我从屋顶拿下我的刀来双面胶带，并放在我的手中碳纤维。我忽然发现排线，他也变了汽车座垫，他在后悔十年前将所有高手都杀绝珍珠奶茶。
高手的悲哀太阳伞。
我握紧了刀桥架，我看着他的眼tpr，已经不再像十年前那样明亮了钢丝。
他的剑划出柴油发电机组，划出一道美丽的剑光护栏。我想围栏，这十年他大概在不停地使自己的剑光更美围栏。
我的刀也出了隔离网。简单的动作隔离网，一刀刺进了他的胸网片。那道美丽的光忽然停止网片，停在我的衣服上南京货架。
他说北京货架：这也是艺术北京货架，杀人的艺术北京货架，想不到你十年不动刀还懂这个艺术仓储货架。
我说仓储货架：因为我不想再让你痛苦了广州货架。
他说广州货架：谢谢货架厂。
我走了货架公司。我头也不回的走了塑料托盘。没有取回我的刀塑料托盘，因为我觉得它在我身边已经没用塑料托盘，我后悔我十年前为什么不扔了它塑料托盘？我听到了尸体倒下的声音塑料托盘。我流泪了塑料托盘，我真的不想杀他仓储笼，十年前不想仓储笼，十年后也不想仓储笼，因为我下山时答应过师父仓储笼，一切让着他仓储笼。
我叹了一口气仓储笼。远去仓储笼。
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